Useful Metrics.

Mike,

I saw your article in the E-N re. Texas’s struggles in the red zone. You noted:

“After ranking 82nd nationally in red-zone efficiency last year, the Longhorns have been even worse in 2011. They’ve scored on only 18 of 26 opportunities (69 percent) inside the opponents’ 20, placing them 113th out of 120 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision teams nationally. Even more frustrating for UT is that six of those scores were merely field goals. Bryan Harsin’s offense has scored touchdowns on just 46 percent of its red-zone trips.” LINK: http://blog.mysanantonio.com/longhorns/2011/10/ut-football-horns-focusing-on-red-zone/

I assume you got your rankings here: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/1038

A couple things bother me about red zone stats and rankings. First of all, there’s the obvious problems comparing the results of an offense with 1st and goal at the 5 versus an offense that gets into the red zone with 4th and 5 from the 20. But, I guess you’ve got to lump some apples in with oranges if you want macro-analysis, and maybe it evens out over the course of 12 or 13 games. My real problem with red zone efficiency stats is treating all scores equally. A field goal is as good as a touchdown, according to the red zone efficiency rankings. That’s ridiculous.

A team with 10 field goals in 10 trips to the red zone is 100% efficient, and sits atop the rankings. On the other hand, a team with 5 touchdowns in 10 trips to the red zone is 50% efficient, and would rank dead last in red zone efficiency. The first-place team scored 30 points in its red zone opportunities; the last-place team scored 35 points*. Have you ever heard anybody say, “Hey, my team lost today 35-30, but who cares - we were twice as efficient team in the red zone!”?

The best metric for red zone efficiency is points per trip to the red zone. Because we value more points over less points. The two teams in my example are hypothetical statistical extremes. Most teams’ delta between their All Scores Are Equal ranking and a points per red zone drive ranking wouldn’t be that extreme. Nevertheless, you get my point. We don’t count field goals and touchdowns equally on the scoreboard. Why do we count them equally in Red Zone Offense rankings?

Mike, please join me in my quest for measuring a team’s red zone efficiency based on points per red zone drives.

Regards,
luridtransom

P.S. Texas averages 3.92 points per red zone drive.

*assumes all PATs converted for one point