http://blog.chron.com/moneysmart/2012/01/the-elections-effect-on-the-stock-market/
The Election’s Effect on the Stock Market
About every four years, media pundits get interested in what effect the Presidential election will have on the stock market. But presidential responsibility for the stock market’s performance is greatly exaggerated. The President nearly always gets more credit in good times and too much blame when the economy is weak. Timing and luck are more important than skill.
Since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrials in 1896, there have been 19 Presidential elections with a sitting President running for reelection. On average, the stock market gained 9%, with the market up 14 times and down 5 times. Those figures are about average for the stock market over almost any extended period of time, meaning that a Presidential election year is not much different for the market than any other year.
The stock market does tend to do well when the economy is good or getting better and generating solid corporate earnings. Low inflation and low interest rates are also a positive for stocks. The President controls little or none of the most important economic factors which influence the stock market. Yet, voters feel secure in a growing economy and this works to the advantage of any incumbent President. Of course, the opposite is true as well.
Republicans are commonly associated with Wall Street and a favorable climate for building wealth. Yet, stock market results vary widely, regardless of who occupies the White House. In 2001, when George W. Bush was sworn in, the S&P stood at 1343. When he left office, the index was 850, a decline of 37%. Obama became President with the S&P at 850 and last week it was 1316, a gain of 55%.
People often associate one event with another event, even though there isn’t a link. It wasn’t so long ago, for example, that stock market forecasts were influenced by the length of women’s hemlines. Today, some observers still claim they can predict the stock market by which team wins the Super Bowl. Any association between such disparate happenings is purely coincidental. People should also give up the foolish notion that the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue determines the direction of the stock market.
Richard Leader, CFA
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